It’s the last Monday of the shortest month. We’ve got coverage on Microsoft data center demand and what that means for Bitcoin miners. Plus headlines you missed this weekend, opening prices and earnings calls.

It’s about a 3 minute read.

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Monday morning opens

Upcoming earnings calls

Is the tide going out on the infrastructure trade?

Microsoft has begun canceling various data center development projects—both nationally and internationally—signaling a change in pace for data center infrastructure investments, per an analysts note from TD Cowen Friday.

“We learned via our channel checks that Microsoft 1) walked away from multiple +100MW deals in multiple markets that were in early/mid-stages of negotiations, 2) let +1GW of LOIs on larger footprint site expire, and 3) walked away from at least five land parcels that it had under contract in multiple Tier 1 markets,” the analyst note states.

The TD Cowen report linked back to OpenAI’s Stargate initiative—a $500 billion masterplan from the Trump administration, SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI to build hundreds of megawatts in the U.S. According to a press release on January 21, OpenAI plans on shifting some of its data center needs from Microsoft Azure to Stargate. TD Cowen thinks the data center cancellations and Stargate are connected.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, however. In an interview with Jefferies, Microsoft refuted TD Cowen’s analysis, stating that they “have already invested heavily in DC in the last few years” and that while “capex growth [will] slow yoy from the 50-60% rate” it remains relatively high.

The Microsoft news leaves us with three thoughts:

1. Microsoft is the canary in the coal mine, demonstrating that the market’s appetite for high-cost megawatts is abating;

2. Microsoft is making a momentary, strategic pullback after losing out to Stargate partners amid OpenAI’s insatiable demand for energy; or

3. TD Cowen’s has erred.

For Bitcoin miners—who have patiently awaited a bid since October—the benefits depend on their profile. For pure-play miners (CLSK, MARA, etc.), the first scenario is likely superior, as it implies less future competition. Remember, pure-play miners have historically acquired sites incrementally as they expand their energy capacity, making them more vulnerable to market pricing. For hybrid or “mullet miners,” the second scenario is clearly preferable, as Microsoft and others will need more rack space—after all, who wouldn’t want to be the landlord?

But let’s be honest: do we really see this train slowing down?

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Strategy (Formerly Microstrategy) Acquires 20K BTC

Strategy has purchased another 20,356 BTC at an average price of $97,514 per Bitcoin—totaling $2 billion. The Tysons, VA–based software company now holds 499,096 BTC.

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