Blockspace’s 2026 predictions

AI data center builds will be saddled with delays in 2026

2024 and 2025’s AI CAPEX boon has been sown. 2026 will be the year for reaping. And I anticipate that a number of data center builds, from AI-expanding bitcoin miners, big tech firms, and neoclouds alike, will fall short come harvest season. This is not a unique call, nor is it a hard one to make. But a macro cocktail of energy constraints, logistics bottlenecks, and raw material deficits will doubtless stupefy build outs from even the most competent firms. China’s export controls on silver, following earlier controls on other critical minerals, only exacerbate existing issues — and what if they clamp down even more?

Metals outperform yet again

Silver and gold outperformed every other major asset this year, giving bitcoiners little ammo to lob at their gold bug family members over Christmas dinner. The boomer rocks are making a comeback as central banks hoard gold amid failing confidence in U.S. Treasuries — not to mention the fact that a 1 GW data center requires 0.5-1.5 metric tones of silver. As many macro analysts have pointed out, we appear to not only be entering a new monetary regime where gold plays a competing role with the dollar as a neutral settlement option, but industrial use is setting a new floor price for silver and other metals. China’s export controls will aggravate the supply deficits, so we expect 2026 to be another great year for the boomer rocks.

Hashrate grows at slowest pace in years as bitcoin miners stay in purgatory

Bitcoin’s hashrate grew 32% in 2025, a respectable increase. But this figure would have been higher if bitcoin didn’t underperform, and — perhaps more importantly — if the largest miners in the U.S. didn’t turn their full attention to AI. The AI bandwagon is still on the parade, so we don’t anticipate this changing anytime soon. Plus, if bitcoin slogs along under $100k or capitulates from here, then we won’t be surprised if Bitcoin’s hashrate experiences even less growth in 2026 than 2021, the year of the China Mining Ban where hashrate expanded a piddling 23%.

-CMH

Goldman, JPMorgan, others launch bitcoin lending and it is wildly successful

The strongest product market fit for crypto right now (that isn’t stablecoins) is settlement and collateral. Bitcoin is absolutely the best collateral, crypto’s “pristine” asset. 2026 will be the year, if 2025 wasn’t already, of tradfi really embracing this collateral. As Larry Fink often points out, Blackrock’s bitcoin ETF launch was the most successful ETF in the history of the firm — so too will bitcoin lending be viewed in retrospect. I’m personally partial to bitcoin lending that is more on-chain, but this will be an extremely competitive and lucrative market for both custodial and non-custodial solutions.

90% of users on the internet cannot discern AI generated content from human by the end of the year

It is almost already the case today, but it will be indisputable by the end of this year. Even if a person is told “you are looking at two images, one of them is AI” the supermajority of people will not be able to discern which is real. People will get calls from loved ones in distress and will not be able to tell that it’s an AI scamming them. We will flounder for effective solutions in the short term.

Prediction Markets have a “FiveThirtyEight” moment

Prediction markets become the preferred “true” polling method for elections, sports, and culture wars (it already is for the chronically-online, but the normies are coming). Just as FiveThirtyEight transformed election polling and discourse into data-heavy insights that the average person could understand, so too will the average person “fact check” news and public opinion on Polymarket. I expect by the end of the year we will also see more than 1 major exploitation of a market (think several days of a leading story on the national news), most likely around the U.S. mid-term elections.

-CBS

TeraWulf joint venture finalizes $1.3B secured financing for Texas AI campus

TeraWulf’s joint venture, Flash Compute, has completed a $1.3 billion senior secured notes offering to finance a new AI data center campus in Abernathy, Texas. - link

Strategy buys 1,229 bitcoin funded by $108.8M MSTR issuance

Strategy acquired 1,229 bitcoin at an average price of $88,568 for $108.8 million between December 22 and December 28, funding the buy with proceeds from MSTR sales. - link

Semler Scientific chairman urges investors to approve Strive merger ahead of Jan 13 meeting

Semler Scientific Chairman Eric Semler encouraged shareholders Monday to vote for the proposed merger with Strive ahead of a January 13, 2026 special meeting to approve the business combination. - link

Riot Platforms opens $500M equity offering following bullish forecast

The new $500 million facility replaces a previous equity sale agreement established on August 9, 2024. Riot terminated that prior agreement effective Tuesday. Under the terms of the agreement, Riot retains discretion over the timing and volume of sales. - link