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The track record for shilling BTC on Thanksgiving

1 in 7 Americans own Bitcoin, so if you have a large family, chances are you’re probably not the only person in the room who will shill BTC over turkey this year.

But the question is should you?

We ran the numbers on Bitcoin’s returns between Thanksgiving and Christmas going back to 2012, and the answer is…. Mixed.

It’s a dead tie

Let’s look at Bitcoin’s price performance over the past 12 years. Bitcoin’s had just as many green holidays as red since 2012 – we are dead even. We have 6 down years and 6 up years (ok, technically it was up in 2024, but at +0.4%, it was really just flat).

The historical data says it’s a coin toss whether Bitcoin is up or down by the time you get back together with your family for Christmas.

Not all holidays are created equally

Even though it’s a coin toss whether we go up or down, the average returns over all holiday seasons are ~6%. So, statistically, if your drunk uncle does the math it’s more likely that he’ll be more happy than he is sad.

Plucking out a few notable years, let’s take a look at 2022.

The FTX collapse happened the first week of November 2022. Interestingly, that holiday season Bitcoin only dropped -3.62%. It feels like ages ago.

The unmatched, god-tier Bitcoin shill year was undoubtedly Thanksgiving 2020. Remember, this was in the middle of COVID, everyone was hot off their $1,200 COVID stimulus checks, and the 2nd ($600) stimmy was right around the corner. Bitcoin proceeded to rip almost 50% the remainder of the year.

2013 is probably the most unappreciated year to shill. Bitcoin had a generational 2013 run from double digits all the way up to ~$1300. Ross Ulbricht had been arrested for running the Silk Road earlier that fall, but Bitcoin still ripped.

However, Thanksgiving in 2013 pretty much marked the pico top. Months later, MtGox collapsed. (I believe this is where the meme about regretting telling your family about Bitcoin started).

Thanksgiving 2025

Unfortunately, we don’t know where Bitcoin goes over the next 30 days. If we did, we wouldn’t be writing newsletters. However, Arthur Hayes has called for a potential run to $200,000 “if the conditions are right” (whatever that means?).

The only truly actionable advice I can give you is to tell you friends and family to start DCAing Bitcoin. They probably won’t do it, but maybe they’ll capitulate and at least grab some $IBIT.

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