The big difference between bitcoin and crypto treasury companies

The devil is in the volatility.

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Fractal Bitcoin

The bitcoin treasury strategy is so popular that it’s spawned copy cats in crypto, but can it be replicated with ETH, SOL, even SUI?

For today, we examine the question by taking a look at mNAV multiples and volatility for popular digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.

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The big difference between bitcoin and crypto treasury companies 

The future is on off-chain. That’s right, we spent the past 15 years telling you to get your money onto “the blockchain” and now we’re telling you to pull it out and put it into Charles Schwab so that someone else can buy those scarce digital assets for you.

Of course, I’m talking about this cycle’s leverage of choice: digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.

Gradually, then suddenly, public markets created a new species of crypto company, DATs. Unlike Tesla or Coinbase who hold bitcoin as part of their operating businesses, DATs exist solely to hold coins on their balance sheet, giving shareholders high-beta exposure to these treasuries.

But just like not all blockchains are created equal, neither are DATs. With the limited data available so far, it appears that bitcoin DATs are comparatively stable to their volatile crypto counterparts.

The mNAV metric is conventionally the most common way to measure a DAT’s performance – that is, the company’s enterprise value (or sometimes market capitalization) divided by the mark-to-market value of the coins it holds. A 1.0x mNAV means the company trades right at its treasury value; higher than that is a premium – lower, a discount.

The data on DATs: bitcoin

To compare relative volatility and performance of these DATs, let’s take a look at mNAVs for some Bitcoin treasury companies first:

  • [Micro]Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR): 1.58x 

  • Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR): 1.04x

  • Metaplanet (OTCMKTS: MTPLF): 1.14x 

  • Nakamoto Holdings (NASDAQ: NAKA) is currently trading at about ~1.0x of their current disclosed holdings of 21 BTC ( this is before their anticipated ~$726m smash buy purchase)

Pulling data from Bitcointreasuries.net, we see that Bitcoin treasury companies range between 0.9x - 1.6x mNAV.

Overall Bitcoin treasuries have an average ~1.3x mNAV with tight variance. Bitcoin treasury mNAVs have shrunk since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have eaten into these stocks’ premiums, but the premiums are still there for many bitcoin DATs.

The data on DATs: crypto

Now, let’s look at the ETH, SOL, and SUI treasury companies (using a dataset and PIPE structure breakdown from BitMEX Research):

  • ETH DATs: 

    • BitMine Immersion Technologies (NASDAQ: BMNR):1.9x 

    • Dynamix Corporation (NASDAQ: DYNX): 0.16x (a massive discount, however this is a pending merger)

  • SOL DATs: 

    • Upexi, Inc (NASDAQ: UPEXI): 1.2x 

    • DeFi Development Corp (NASDAQ: DFDV): 1.8x.

  • SUI DATs: 

    • Mill City Ventures III (NASDAQ: MCVT) 1.8x (with advisor warrants that arguably “encourage volatility,” per Bitmex)

We see a much wider range of mNAV for non-BTC DATs, from 0.16x to 1.94x and an interquartile range of 0.98x - 1.69x.

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