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Two papers landed this week that accelerated the quantum threat timeline for Bitcoin. Here's what changed, what it means, so you can decide for yourself whether to panic or dismiss it.

On March 31, two research papers dropped that sent Twitter into a familiar, janus-faced cycle of alarm and apathy. One came from Google Quantum AI, the other from a Caltech startup named Oratomic.

Both deal with the same question: how many qubits does it actually take to break the cryptography that secures Bitcoin? If you’re not up to speed on quantum and qubits we recommend you check out our 3-part quantum miniseries.

To oversimplify: quantum computers use qubits instead of bits. The theoretical problem set is focused on reducing the number of qubits needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.

One of the biggest names in Quantum research, Scott Aaronson, neatly summed up the findings: “Neither of these [papers] change the basic principles of Quantum Computers that we’ve known for decades, but they do change the numbers.”

TL;DR: The theory is advancing quite rapidly, but actually building a functional quantum computer is still a massive unknown.

For starters, Google's team built optimized quantum circuits for running Shor's algorithm against Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography. The team showed they could run a relevant quantum computer with 500,000 physical qubits in nine-minutes time on average.

That's a ~20x reduction from the previous best estimate of ~9 million qubits and 9 minutes is less than Bitcoin's average block time of 10 minutes. This means a powerful enough quantum computer could theoretically crack a private key while a transaction is in-flight.

The Oratomic paper goes further. They argue you could break Bitcoin’s cryptography with much fewer qubits – roughly 26,000 – in about 10 days. More importantly, they believe fault tolerant quantum computing might be achievable in that qubit range. For the uninformed, the big challenge is getting the qubits to work correctly in the wild – “fault tolerance”.

So in theory, Bitcoin’s quantum computing risk just got worse.

But critics make a good point: Nobody built a new quantum computer this week. They found a more efficient way to theoretically use one that doesn't exist yet.

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